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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Fri 16 Jan 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

83%

Sporting CP

1.21

11%

Draw

8.81

6%

Casa Pia

16.95

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

11.2%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 0

11.1%

Home win

4 – 0

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.97

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.67

0.70

Casa Pia xG

83%
11%
Sporting CPDrawCasa Pia

1.21

83%

Home win

8.81

11%

Draw

16.95

6%

Away win

Goals Markets

88%

Over 1.5

1.14

12%

Under 1.5

8.33

71%

Over 2.5

1.41

29%

Under 2.5

3.45

50%

Over 3.5

2.00

50%

Under 3.5

2.00

31%

Over 4.5

3.23

69%

Under 4.5

1.45

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.09

52%

BTTS No

1.92

Clean Sheet

50%

Sporting CP

2.02

5%

Casa Pia

19.47

Win to Nil

41%

Sporting CP

2.44

0%

Casa Pia

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 7.6 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 11.2 7.9 2.8 0.6 0.1
3 11.1 7.8 2.7 0.6 0.1
4 8.2 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1
5 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.3

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.969
λ Away (xG) 0.702
Total xG 3.671
League avg home goals 1.448
League avg away goals 1.268
Sporting CP attack strength 1.655
Sporting CP defence strength 0.605
Casa Pia attack strength 0.915
Casa Pia defence strength 1.239
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51