Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sporting CP vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sporting CP — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio José Alvalade, Sporting CP have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.60 PPG (Sporting CP) versus 2.40 (Benfica). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sporting CP, 2 for Benfica and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 52% versus Benfica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sporting CP 68% | Benfica 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.67 xG and Benfica 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.563 / defence 0.785 | Benfica attack 1.258 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.139. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.563 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Sporting CP games / 63 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 50% | Draw 24% | Benfica 26%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Benfica 3.85. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sporting CP 30% | Benfica 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 50% | Draw 24% | Benfica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Sporting CP 1.67 / Benfica 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.563 / def 0.785 | Benfica attack 1.258 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Benfica kick off?
Sporting CP vs Benfica kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Sporting CP vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Benfica part of?
Sporting CP vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 50% chance of winning, Benfica a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sporting CP and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
Record (9 meetings): Sporting CP 3W | Draws 4 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.56x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.13
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.80
1.13
Benfica xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.13 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 47W 12D 3L from 62 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 45W 14D 3L across 62 games — 2.40 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sporting CP on 2.47 PPG, Benfica on 2.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 25W 3D 2L from 30 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 21W 7D 2L across 30 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.34 scored and 0.71 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 47W 12D 3L in their last 62 games (2.47 PPG), while Benfica have gone 45W 14D 3L in their last 62 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Benfica away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.60 PPG; Benfica away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
4
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 3, Benfica have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 47%, Benfica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sporting CP and 60% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benfica in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 53% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sporting CP's matches and 60% of Benfica's.
Do Sporting CP and Benfica tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Benfica in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benfica defy the odds to beat Sporting CP 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Sporting CP 1-2 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.67 xG and Benfica 1.13 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.56 / defence 0.79 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 0.72, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 50% | Draw 24% | Benfica 26%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 68%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.47 PPG, Benfica 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.