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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 22, as Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.29 xG and Arouca 1.03 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.38 / defence 0.81 against Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 65% | Draw 19% | Arouca 15%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 73%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Arouca's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights