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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 15 Feb 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

65%

Sporting CP

1.53

19%

Draw

5.24

15%

Arouca

6.49

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.5%

Home win

1 – 1

8.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.29

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.33

1.03

Arouca xG

65%
19%
15%
Sporting CPDrawArouca

1.53

65%

Home win

5.24

19%

Draw

6.49

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.38

Clean Sheet

36%

Sporting CP

2.80

10%

Arouca

9.91

Win to Nil

23%

Sporting CP

4.28

2%

Arouca

64.34

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.6 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2
1 8.3 8.5 4.4 1.5 0.4 0.1
2 9.5 9.8 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 7.2 7.5 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
4 4.2 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2
5 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.294
λ Away (xG) 1.031
Total xG 3.325
League avg home goals 1.399
League avg away goals 1.190
Sporting CP attack strength 1.377
Sporting CP defence strength 0.808
Arouca attack strength 1.071
Arouca defence strength 1.190
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55