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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alverca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Alverca 2-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.34 xG and Alverca 1.05 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alverca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.37 / defence 0.82 against Alverca attack 1.06 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 65% | Draw 21% | Alverca 14%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Alverca 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alverca's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights