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Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Tondela 3-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.75 xG and Tondela 0.97 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tondela landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Tondela attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 56% | Draw 23% | Tondela 21%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights