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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 25, as SC Braga and Sporting CP drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.40 xG and Sporting CP 1.50 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.39 / defence 0.88 against Sporting CP attack 1.45 / defence 0.67, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 34% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 39%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 57%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights