🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nacional defy the odds to beat SC Braga 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.12 xG and Nacional 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Nacional attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 37% | Draw 31% | Nacional 32%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 50%, Nacional 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Nacional's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Nacional winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Nacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights