🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Moreirense 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Moreirense 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.69 xG and Moreirense 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Moreirense attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 51% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 22%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 50%, Moreirense 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Moreirense's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights