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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Guimaraes 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Guimaraes 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.25 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Guimaraes outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Guimaraes attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 70% | Draw 18% | Guimaraes 12%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 55%, Guimaraes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Guimaraes's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.88 PPG, Guimaraes 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Braga win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights