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Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat SC Braga 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 37% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 35%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 53%, GIL Vicente 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights