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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat GIL Vicente 2-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.15 xG and GIL Vicente 1.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.27 / defence 1.13 against GIL Vicente attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 62% | Draw 21% | GIL Vicente 17%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 67%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights