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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and Famalicao share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 14, as SC Braga and Famalicao drew 3-3 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.70 xG and Famalicao 1.44 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.22 / defence 1.22 against Famalicao attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 44% | Draw 23% | Famalicao 33%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 66%, Famalicao 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Famalicao's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights