🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SC Braga and Estrela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 34, as SC Braga and Estrela drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.18 xG and Estrela 0.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estrela outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Estrela attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 66% | Draw 19% | Estrela 15%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 57%, Estrela 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Estrela's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights