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Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Boavista.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Boavista 3-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.90 xG and Boavista 1.41 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Boavista landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.21 / defence 1.26 against Boavista attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 48% | Draw 24% | Boavista 28%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 65%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Boavista's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights