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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and Benfica share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga and Benfica finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 0.90 xG and Benfica 1.42 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Benfica attack 1.38 / defence 0.61, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 24% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 51%, Benfica 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights