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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga and Benfica finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.34 xG and Benfica 1.72 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Benfica attack 1.53 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 30% | Draw 24% | Benfica 47%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 60%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Benfica's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.99 PPG, Benfica 2.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights