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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Arouca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Arouca 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.30 xG and Arouca 1.14 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against Arouca attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 64% | Draw 19% | Arouca 18%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 57%, Arouca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Arouca's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights