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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Arouca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.64 xG and Arouca 1.14 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Arouca attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 49% | Draw 24% | Arouca 27%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 62%, Arouca 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Arouca's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights