🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Santa Clara 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Santa Clara 1-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.78 xG and Sporting CP 1.51 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Sporting CP attack 1.35 / defence 0.69, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 18% | Draw 28% | Sporting CP 54%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 32%, Sporting CP 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights