🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat SC Braga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.81 xG and SC Braga 1.41 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against SC Braga attack 1.24 / defence 0.74, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 21% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 51%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, SC Braga 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights