Santa Clara 0-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Santa Clara and SC Braga meet at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Santa Clara's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 6W 0D 1L from 7 home games — 2.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Miguel. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santa Clara lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 3–5 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Santa Clara half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
SC Braga half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 29% versus SC Braga 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 29% | SC Braga 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.91 xG and SC Braga 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.819 / defence 0.846 | SC Braga attack 1.112 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.121. SC Braga's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Santa Clara games / 48 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 30% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 38%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | SC Braga 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Braga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 29% | SC Braga 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 30% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Santa Clara 0.91 / SC Braga 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.819 / def 0.846 | SC Braga attack 1.112 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SC Braga xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs SC Braga kick off?
Santa Clara vs SC Braga kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
Santa Clara 0 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Santa Clara vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs SC Braga part of?
Santa Clara vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 30% chance of winning, SC Braga a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Santa Clara and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and SC Braga?
Record (4 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 2 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and SC Braga in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.82x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (1.11x) against Santa Clara's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
30%
3.28
31%
3.21
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
1.96
1.05
SC Braga xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.05 for SC Braga, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 9W 0D 5L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga's form line: 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Santa Clara against 1.79 for SC Braga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santa Clara are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.79 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; SC Braga in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 9W 0D 5L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or SC Braga away?
Santa Clara's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 3.00 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, SC Braga in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Braga won 0-4 on 5 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santa Clara have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
3
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, SC Braga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Santa Clara 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Santa Clara) and 33% (SC Braga) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Santa Clara) and 50% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; SC Braga in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 33% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and SC Braga tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Santa Clara 0-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.91 xG and SC Braga 1.05 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 0.85 against SC Braga attack 1.11 / defence 0.80, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 30% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 38%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 29%, SC Braga 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.93 PPG, SC Braga 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Braga win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.