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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santa Clara and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 25, as Santa Clara and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.22 xG and Moreirense 1.06 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against Moreirense attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 39% | Draw 29% | Moreirense 32%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, Moreirense 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Moreirense's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights