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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 9 Mar 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

39%

Santa Clara

2.55

29%

Draw

3.45

32%

Moreirense

3.15

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.5%

Home win

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.22

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.28

1.06

Moreirense xG

39%
29%
32%
Santa ClaraDrawMoreirense

2.55

39%

Home win

3.45

29%

Draw

3.15

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.16

54%

BTTS No

1.86

Clean Sheet

35%

Santa Clara

2.90

30%

Moreirense

3.37

Win to Nil

14%

Santa Clara

7.37

9%

Moreirense

10.61

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.2 10.9 5.8 2.1 0.5 0.1
1 12.5 13.2 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 7.6 8.0 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 3.1 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.2
4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.215
λ Away (xG) 1.063
Total xG 2.278
League avg home goals 1.342
League avg away goals 1.109
Santa Clara attack strength 0.759
Santa Clara defence strength 1.033
Moreirense attack strength 0.928
Moreirense defence strength 1.193
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 24 / 58