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Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat Guimaraes 2-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.32 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Guimaraes attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 36% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 35%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, Guimaraes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Guimaraes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.31 PPG, Guimaraes 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights