Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Famalicao travel to Estadio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara at Estadio de São Miguel this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santa Clara at 1.50 PPG versus Famalicao's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Famalicao have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Santa Clara's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
It is worth noting that Famalicao have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 42% versus Famalicao 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 36% | Famalicao 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.33 xG and Famalicao 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.027 / defence 1.024 | Famalicao attack 0.883 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.304. Data: 36 Santa Clara games / 36 Famalicao games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 40% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 33%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Santa Clara 40% | Famalicao 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 40% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Santa Clara 1.33 / Famalicao 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.027 / def 1.024 | Famalicao attack 0.883 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Famalicao xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Famalicao kick off?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Estadio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Santa Clara vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Famalicao part of?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 40% chance of winning, Famalicao a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Santa Clara and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Record (8 meetings): Santa Clara 2W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 5W.
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Famalicao xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.18 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 10D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (15W 12D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Famalicao carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 7W 3D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (6W 8D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 12D 9L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.33 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Famalicao in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Santa Clara
1
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
From 9 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 39%, Famalicao 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Santa Clara and 28% for Famalicao.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Famalicao in 39%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 39% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Santa Clara's recent games and 28% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estadio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.33 xG and Famalicao 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 40% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 33%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 36%, Famalicao 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.