Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Estoril travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santa Clara have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio de São Miguel — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estoril have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estoril are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 4, Estoril 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Estoril in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 40% versus Estoril 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 30% | Estoril 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.03 xG and Estoril 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.628 / defence 0.806 | Estoril attack 1.322 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.227. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.628 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Santa Clara games / 53 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 29% | Draw 28% | Estoril 43%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Estoril 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Santa Clara dominate the H2H record, yet Estoril are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 30% | Estoril 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 29% | Draw 28% | Estoril 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Santa Clara 1.03 / Estoril 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.628 / def 0.806 | Estoril attack 1.322 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Estoril (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Estoril xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Estoril kick off?
Santa Clara vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Santa Clara 2 - 4 Estoril.
Where is Santa Clara vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Estoril part of?
Santa Clara vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 29% chance of winning, Estoril a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Santa Clara and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Record (7 meetings): Santa Clara 4W | Draws 1 | Estoril 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (0.63) and Estoril's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
29%
3.39
28%
3.60
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.34
1.31
Estoril xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.31 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 21W 11D 21L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 19W 15D 19L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.40 PPG, Estoril on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (13W 4D 9L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 7W 8D 11L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.60 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Estoril have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Estoril away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.65 PPG; Estoril away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estoril in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Santa Clara
1
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 4, Estoril have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 35%, Estoril 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Santa Clara) and 77% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Santa Clara have failed to score in 35% of games; Estoril in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 54% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Santa Clara's recent games and 77% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Estoril tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Estoril in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Santa Clara 2-4 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.03 xG and Estoril 1.31 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.63 / defence 0.81 against Estoril attack 1.32 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 29% | Draw 28% | Estoril 43%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 30%, Estoril 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.40 PPG, Estoril 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.