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Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Santa Clara 2-3 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.11 xG and Estoril 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.68 / defence 0.87 against Estoril attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 35% | Draw 31% | Estoril 34%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 29%, Estoril 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Estoril's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Estoril winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights