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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 13

Kick-off

Sat 6 Dec 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

42%

Santa Clara

2.38

29%

Draw

3.48

29%

Casa Pia

3.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.1%

Home win

0 – 1

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.41

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.54

1.14

Casa Pia xG

42%
29%
29%
Santa ClaraDrawCasa Pia

2.38

42%

Home win

3.48

29%

Draw

3.42

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.91

48%

BTTS No

2.10

Clean Sheet

32%

Santa Clara

3.11

25%

Casa Pia

4.08

Win to Nil

13%

Santa Clara

7.41

7%

Casa Pia

13.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 8.9 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 11.1 12.6 7.1 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.8 8.8 5.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 3.6 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.406
λ Away (xG) 1.136
Total xG 2.542
League avg home goals 1.308
League avg away goals 1.320
Santa Clara attack strength 0.886
Santa Clara defence strength 0.916
Casa Pia attack strength 0.939
Casa Pia defence strength 1.212
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 46 / 46