Santa Clara 1-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Santa Clara at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Casa Pia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Santa Clara, 1 for Casa Pia and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Santa Clara winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 44% versus Casa Pia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 33% | Casa Pia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.41 xG and Casa Pia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.886 / defence 0.916 | Casa Pia attack 0.939 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.320. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Santa Clara games / 46 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 29%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Casa Pia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Santa Clara 40% | Casa Pia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Santa Clara 1.41 / Casa Pia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.886 / def 0.916 | Casa Pia attack 0.939 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Casa Pia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Casa Pia kick off?
Santa Clara vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia part of?
Santa Clara vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 42% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santa Clara and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
Record (4 meetings): Santa Clara 2W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Casa Pia in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.89x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.48
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.54
1.14
Casa Pia xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.14 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 20W 9D 17L from 46 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 20L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.50 PPG, Casa Pia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santa Clara have managed 12W 3D 8L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santa Clara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.13 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Casa Pia away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.70 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Casa Pia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santa Clara's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Santa Clara
2
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
From 6 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 3, Casa Pia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 39%, Casa Pia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Santa Clara) and 52% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Santa Clara have failed to score in 30% of games; Casa Pia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 48% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Santa Clara's recent games and 52% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Casa Pia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Casa Pia 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.41 xG and Casa Pia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Casa Pia attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 29%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.50 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.