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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Santa Clara 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Santa Clara 0-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 30% | Draw 28% | Benfica 42%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 38%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.81. Form held, and they took the win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights