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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat AVS 2-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.56 xG and AVS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against AVS attack 0.86 / defence 1.50, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 47% | Draw 29% | AVS 24%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, AVS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

AVS's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights