🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Santa Clara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 15, as Santa Clara and Arouca drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.78 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Arouca attack 1.03 / defence 1.56, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 54% | Draw 23% | Arouca 23%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, Arouca 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arouca's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights