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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Sun 21 Dec 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

54%

Santa Clara

1.87

23%

Draw

4.30

23%

Arouca

4.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.78

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.88

1.10

Arouca xG

54%
23%
23%
Santa ClaraDrawArouca

1.87

54%

Home win

4.30

23%

Draw

4.31

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.81

45%

BTTS No

2.24

Clean Sheet

33%

Santa Clara

2.99

17%

Arouca

5.96

Win to Nil

18%

Santa Clara

5.59

4%

Arouca

25.67

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 6.1 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 10.0 11.0 6.0 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.9 9.8 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
3 5.3 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.4 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.785
λ Away (xG) 1.096
Total xG 2.881
League avg home goals 1.373
League avg away goals 1.257
Santa Clara attack strength 0.832
Santa Clara defence strength 0.846
Arouca attack strength 1.031
Arouca defence strength 1.563
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 48