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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Alverca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat Alverca 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.24 xG and Alverca 0.98 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.75 / defence 0.83 against Alverca attack 0.95 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | Alverca 29%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 20%, Alverca 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Alverca's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.00 PPG, Alverca 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights