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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 20 Sep 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

42%

Santa Clara

2.37

29%

Draw

3.50

29%

Alverca

3.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

0 – 0

10.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.24

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.23

0.98

Alverca xG

42%
29%
29%
Santa ClaraDrawAlverca

2.37

42%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

3.42

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.24

55%

BTTS No

1.81

Clean Sheet

37%

Santa Clara

2.68

29%

Alverca

3.47

Win to Nil

16%

Santa Clara

6.35

8%

Alverca

11.86

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.8 10.6 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 13.4 13.2 6.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 8.3 8.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 3.5 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
4 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.244
λ Away (xG) 0.985
Total xG 2.229
League avg home goals 1.306
League avg away goals 1.252
Santa Clara attack strength 0.752
Santa Clara defence strength 0.829
Alverca attack strength 0.950
Alverca defence strength 1.266
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 5