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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rio Ave run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Tondela 3-0 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.71 xG and Tondela 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tondela landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Tondela attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 53% | Draw 26% | Tondela 22%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 57%, Tondela 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Tondela's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 0.71 PPG, Tondela 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights