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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Rio Ave 1-4 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 0.79 xG and Sporting CP 1.85 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against Sporting CP attack 1.39 / defence 0.73, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 16% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 62%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 54%, Sporting CP 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights