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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Rio Ave 0-3 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.60 xG and Sporting CP 2.15 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sporting CP outscored their 2.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Sporting CP attack 1.61 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 28% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 50%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 39%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sporting CP's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights