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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave and Santa Clara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.21 xG and Santa Clara 1.31 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Santa Clara attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 33% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 38%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 53%, Santa Clara 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.11 PPG, Santa Clara 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights