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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave and Santa Clara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.27 xG and Santa Clara 1.05 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.05 / defence 1.27 against Santa Clara attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 41% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 31%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 52%, Santa Clara 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights