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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rio Ave edge out Nacional 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Nacional 2-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.83 xG and Nacional 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against Nacional attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 57% | Draw 23% | Nacional 19%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 47%, Nacional 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.07 PPG, Nacional 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights