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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Rio Ave 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Rio Ave 1-2 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.07 xG and Moreirense 1.41 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Moreirense attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 29% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 45%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 56%, Moreirense 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Moreirense's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.05 PPG, Moreirense 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights