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Shock result as Guimaraes defy the odds to beat Rio Ave 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Rio Ave 0-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.30 xG and Guimaraes 1.18 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rio Ave fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Guimaraes attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 38% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 33%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guimaraes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 53%, Guimaraes 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.15 PPG, Guimaraes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights