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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave and GIL Vicente finished level at 1-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.43 xG and GIL Vicente 1.36 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against GIL Vicente attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 39% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 36%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 43%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.10 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights