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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Rio Ave 0-3 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.16 xG and FC Porto 1.53 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Porto outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against FC Porto attack 1.17 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 29% | Draw 25% | FC Porto 46%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 53%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights