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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Casa Pia 3-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.32 xG and Casa Pia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rio Ave beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 34% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 39%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rio Ave win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 54%, Casa Pia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.10 PPG, Casa Pia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights