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Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Rio Ave 0-2 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 0.97 xG and Benfica 2.00 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rio Ave fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Benfica attack 1.39 / defence 0.70, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 18% | Draw 21% | Benfica 61%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 55%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights