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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and AVS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave and AVS finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.73 xG and AVS 0.92 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.08 / defence 1.19 against AVS attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 56% | Draw 24% | AVS 20%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 52%, AVS 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.17 PPG, AVS 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights