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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arouca run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Rio Ave 0-3 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.68 xG and Arouca 1.17 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Arouca outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Arouca attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 49% | Draw 24% | Arouca 27%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 55%, Arouca 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arouca's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.09 PPG, Arouca 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights